Turkiye

Expectations

The GDP (gross domestic product) per capita in Turkey is forecast to amount to €14.21k in 2024.

The GDP (gross domestic product) in Turkey is forecast to amount to €1.23tn in 2024.

The consumer price index in Turkey is expected to be 0.76k by 2024.

The general government gross debt in Turkey is expected to be 31.92% of GDP by 2024.

The general government gross debt in Turkey is expected to be €0.39tn by 2024.

The general government gross revenue in Turkey is expected to be 29.72% of GDP by 2024.

The general government gross revenue in Turkey is expected to be €364.30bn by 2024.

The general government expenditure in Turkey is expected to be 33.38% of GDP by 2024.

The general government expenditure in Turkey is expected to be €0.41tn by 2024.

"Rebalancing in the Turkish economy continues slowly. We keep our baseline assumption as a soft landing (3.5% GDP growth forecast for 2024).

Consumption has most recently started to gain pace, which requires tighter financial conditions to help rebalance the economy and start anchoring inflation expectations."

"The Residential Real Estate market market in Turkey is projected to reach a value of US$6.80tn in 2024.

Based on the expected annual growth rate of 7.59% from 2024 to 2028, the market volume is anticipated to reach US$9.11tn by 2028."

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Sources:

https://www.bbvaresearch.com/en/publicaciones/turkiye-economic-outlook-february-2024

The World Bank (2024)

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Money value calulation

	2024.	2025.	2026.	2027.
Money value	0	0	0	0
Bank savings	0	0	0	0
Real Estate Investment value	0	0	0	0

{ "2024": { "1": 1.0092, "2": 1.0092, "3": 1.0092, "4": 1.0092, "5": 1.0092, "6": 1.0092, "7": 1.0092, "8": 1.0092, "9": 1.0092, "10": 1.0092, "11": 1.0092, "12": 1.0092, "total": 1.1099 }, "2025": { "1": 1.0081, "2": 1.0081, "3": 1.0081, "4": 1.0081, "5": 1.0081, "6": 1.0081, "7": 1.0081, "8": 1.0081, "9": 1.0081, "10": 1.0081, "11": 1.0081, "12": 1.0081, "total": 1.0969 }, "2026": { "1": 1.0146, "2": 1.0146, "3": 1.0146, "4": 1.0146, "5": 1.0146, "6": 1.0146, "7": 1.0146, "8": 1.0146, "9": 1.0146, "10": 1.0146, "11": 1.0146, "12": 1.0146, "total": 1.1751 }, "2027": { "1": 1.0192, "2": 1.0192, "3": 1.0192, "4": 1.0192, "5": 1.0192, "6": 1.0192, "7": 1.0192, "8": 1.0192, "9": 1.0192, "10": 1.0192, "11": 1.0192, "12": 1.0192, "total": 1.2301 } }

Inflation

Year	Inflation
2010	8.57%
2011	6.47%
2012	8.89%
2013	7.49%
2014	8.86%
2015	7.67%
2016	7.78%
2017	11.14%
2018	16.33%
2019	15.18%
2020	12.28%
2021	19.60%
2022	72.31%
2023	51.17%
2024	62.50%
2025	52.48%
2026	48.14%
2027	39.04%

Sources:

Central Bank of Republic of the Turkey (2024), www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN

Turkish Statistical Institute (2024), https://www.tuik.gov.tr/Home/Index

World Bank Group (2024), https://www.worldbank.org/en/home

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Import/Export

The top exports of Turkey are Refined Petroleum (€12.3B), Cars (€9.67B), Jewellery (€8.12B), Motor vehicles; parts and accessories (8701 to 8705) (€6.78B), and Delivery Trucks (€5.88B), exporting mostly to Germany (€21.9B), United States (€17.1B), Iraq (€13.7B), United Kingdom (€13.7B), and Italy (€12.6B).

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in 000.		Export	Import
2020	Q1	31,217,061	42,410,177
	Q2	48,386,444	46,449,241
	Q3	37,460,473	58,566,435
	Q4	39,021,326	54,527,370
2021	Q1	51,799,325	62,427,877
	Q2	43,511,433	59,930,762
	Q3	49,727,352	57,433,647
	Q4	62,159,190	69,919,222
2022	Q1	56,853,792	81,675,484
	Q2	85,280,688	85,226,592
	Q3	69,487,968	99,431,024
	Q4	72,646,512	88,777,700
2023	Q1	51,769,872	76,550,532
	Q2	54,123,048	86,535,384
	Q3	61,182,576	93,191,952
	Q4	56,476,224	76,550,532

Currency: EUR

Values: in .000

Sources:

World Bank (2024)

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GDP

A slight increase in GDP was recorded, while gross investments are in permanent decline. The consumption of the population is around 1.1 billion euros.

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in 000.	Consumption	Investments	GDP
2020	475,603,200	218,724,480	662,400,000
2021	513,459,250	238,434,816	752,872,800
2022	575,027,232	294,597,285	833,372,800
2023	754,184,720	319,200,716	1,062,232,000

Currency: EUR

Values: in .000

Sources:

World Bank (2024)

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Credit

As a result of its analysis in November 2023, the Standard & Poor's agency confirmed Turkiye's B credit rating with a positive outlook. In January 2024, Moody's Investors Service confirmed Turkiye's credit rating of "B3 with a positive outlook".

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Agency Moody's Investors Service
Rating	Date	Activity
B3 / positive	1/12/2024	Confirmed Rating

Agency Standard & Poor's
Rating	Date	Activity
B / positive	11/30/2023	Confirmed Rating

Sources:

https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/rating

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Construction

Year	2022	2023
Price per m2 - Residential	2,000	2,100
Price per m2 - Hotels	2,430	2,650
Price per m2 - Office Buildings	2,000	2,000
Price per m2 - Industrial Buildings	1,830	1,900

Currency: EUR

Sources:

https://www.tuik.gov.tr/Home/Index

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Tourism

	Tourist overnights
2021	37,100,000
Hotels	35,430,500
Resorts	1,113,000
Camps	556,500
2022	67,800,000
Hotels	64,749,000
Resorts	2,034,000
Camps	1,017,000
2023	83,450,000
Hotels	79,694,750
Resorts	2,503,500
Camps	1,251,750

Currency: EUR

Sources:

https://www.tuik.gov.tr/Home/Index

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Interest rates - Savings

Period	Deposits - 1 year	Deposits - over 1 year
Q1-2022	0.22%	1.09%
Q2-2022	0.21%	1.15%
Q3-2022	0.22%	1.15%
Q4-2022	0.22%	1.14%
Q1-2023	0.27%	1.20%
Q2-2023	0.26%	1.18%
Q3-2023	0.30%	1.20%
Q4-2023	0.30%	1.25%

Sources:

https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en

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Interest rates - Loans

Period	Loans - Fixed Interest Rate	Loans - Variable Interest Rates
Q1-2021	4.20%	4.10%
Q2-2021	4.20%	4.10%
Q3-2021	4.35%	4.10%
Q4-2021	4.20%	4.30%
Q1-2022	4.44%	4.50%
Q2-2022	4.40%	4.45%
Q3-2022	4.40%	4.45%
Q4-2022	5.20%	5.30%
Q1-2023	5.20%	5.30%
Q2-2023	5.20%	5.50%
Q3-2023	5.00%	6.00%
Q4-2023	5.00%	6.20%

Sources:

https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/en/tcmb+en

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